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Biotech Scorecard: My Best and Worst Calls

  • 등록일2009-01-06
  • 조회수5928
  • 분류산업동향 > 종합 > 종합

Biotech Scorecard: My Best and Worst Calls

 
 
It's report card time. I've been going over a year's worth of biotech columns to grade my hits and misses for 2008
 
My best call this year was more directional than stock-specific. In mid-February, I reported how the empty rooms and lack of investor interest at the BIO CEO investor conference was a red flag for small-cap biotech stock investing in 2008.

As I stated at the time:
"The reasons are fairly obvious: A nasty stock market and looming threat of recession has put investors in a foul mood. In this atmosphere, risk is most definitely a four-letter word, so there are few institutional investors willing to take on even more by loading up on risky small- and mid-cap biotech stocks."

The situation for small-cap biotech looked bleak then, but I don't think anyone fully knew how bad it would get after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy Sept. 15, causing the whole market to collapse. Many small and early-stage biotech stocks are down 50% to 60% or more in 2008.
 
Big-cap biotech did offer some measure of protection this year. Generally I was right to recommend Gilead Sciences(GILD Quote - Cramer on GILD - Stock Picks) and Celgene(CELG Quote - Cramer on CELG - Stock Picks) for most of the year, although both stocks took hard hits in the fall. Being an Amgen(AMGN Quote - Cramer on AMGN - Stock Picks) bear worked well in 2007, but not so much in 2008, where I wasn't quick or astute enough to pick up the profitable midyear turnaround in the stock.

 
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