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Over the past ten years or so German
pharmacies have seen nominal revenues grow 4.5% p.a., to EUR 36.7 bn in 2007. By comparison, total retail turnover has increased by 1% p.a. The number of pharmacies started to rise from 2003 because pharmacists were granted permission that year to own and operate up to three outlets. There were just over 3,800 inhabitants per pharmacy at last count as opposed to nearly 3,900 in 2003; with this ratio, Germany ranks about average in the EU.

 

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) is currently examining whether the prohibition on foreign ownership of pharmacies in Germany contravenes European regulations on the freedom of establishment. A further case focuses on the limit of three branch outlets per owner. The rulings are expected in spring 2009. While the outcome is still open, pharmaceuticals wholesalers and retailers do not expect the bans to be lifted following the related opinion
delivered by the Advocate General in December 2008.

The pharmacists intend to further expand their branch networks in east Germany in particular, because pharmacy density there is still lower than in west Germany. Moreover, the wholesalers’ existing franchise systems could be extended.

 

In addition, new rivals from related and outside sectors are already poised to enter the market on the back of existing systems. So far, the pharmacy market has generated returns on sales of 10%, considerably outstripping other segments such as food retailing (3%). Shop-in-shop systems could conceivably be set up, but this would require an amendment to the Apothekenbetriebsordnung, the legislation governing the sector.

 

We expect pharmacy market revenues to increase by roughly 2.5% p.a. on average up to 2020, continuing to beat the retail sector as a whole (1% p.a.). The stiffer competition to be expected in the over-the-counter segment of pharmacy business is likely to result in declining prices, so nominal revenue growth will be subdued compared to the past ten years or so.........계속