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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................ 1
Multiple State Policies..............................................................................................2
Legislative Requirements ........................................................................................3
Plan Conclusions ...................................................................................................4
Goals and Outcomes..............................................................................................5
Specific Findings.....................................................................................................6
Fuels.......................................................................................................................6
Vehicles..................................................................................................................6
Infrastructure..........................................................................................................7
Market Niches.................................................................................................7
Government Actions.....................................................................................7
Costs ............................................................................................................8
Plan Scope....................................................................................................9
Key Circumstances, Conditions, and Barriers...............................................9
Recommended Actions.................................................................................. 10
CHAPTER 1: Introduction................................................................................ 11
The Way Forward.......................................................................................... 13
Report Structure ........................................................................................... 15
CHAPTER 2: State Alternative Fuels Plan............................................................. 16
Elements of the State Alternative Fuels Plan........................................................ 17
Requirements..................................................................................................... 17
Financial Incentives............................................................................................ 18
Policy Mechanisms............................................................................................ 19
An Alternative Fuels Use Strategy....................................................................... 19
Key Conclusions of the Plan.............................................................................. 19
Recommended Government Actions ................................................................. 21
California State Government .............................................................................. 21
California Regional Planning Agencies and Local Government.......................... 22
U.S. Federal Government.............................................................. 22
Actions Needed by Fuel Type............................................................... 23
Biofuel Actions...................................................................................... 23
Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel Immediate Actions..................................... 24
Propane Immediate Actions......................................................................... 25
Electric Transportation Technology Actions................................................ 25
Natural Gas Fuel and Technology Immediate Actions..................................... 27
Hydrogen Immediate Actions.............................................................................. 28
Gas-to-Liquid (GTL) and Coal-to-Liquid (CTL) Fuels Immediate Actions............... 28
Estimated Investments Needed ..................................................................... 29
CHAPTER 3: Full Fuel Cycle Assessment ......................................................... 30
Results of the Full Fuel Cycle Analysis ............................................................. 31
The Full Fuel Cycle Assessment ..................................................................... 32
Energy Input, GHG Emissions, and Sustainability ................................................. 33
Criteria Pollutant and Air Toxics Emissions ........................................................... 34
Multimedia Impacts ............................................................................. 35
The Future Value of the Full Fuel Cycle Assessment............................................... 35

CHAPTER 4: Alternative Fuel Use Goals ............................................................... 36

Multiple State policies................................................................................... 36
Petroleum Reduction........................................................................................ 36
In-State Biofuels Production and Use.............................................................. 38
Greenhouse Gas Reduction ........................................................................... 38
Air Quality Goals ............................................................................................. 39
Alternative Fuel Use Goals .............................................................................. 39
CHAPTER 5: Moderate Case Examples............................................................ 42
Alternative Fuel Moderate Case Examples....................................................... 42
Light-Duty Vehicle Market ............................................................................... 43
Heavy-Duty Vehicle Market ............................................................................. 47
Example 1: Ethanol and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles...................................... 48
Example 2: Advanced Biofuels and PHEVs ..................................................... 53
Example 3: Advanced Biofuels and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles ................... 57
Light-Duty Sector Assumptions...................................................................... 57
Heavy-Duty Sector Assumptions ................................................................. 57
Example Analysis Summary............................................................................ 63
CHAPTER 6: The 2050 Vision Statement........................................................... 66
Analytical Approach .................................................................................. 66
Results of the 2050 Vision Forecast............................................................ 67
How Could Such a Dramatic Transition Occur? ......................................... 68
The Major Changes Needed by 2030 Include:............................................ 69
By 2050 an 80 Percent Reduction in GHG Emissions Could Occur as Follows:................ 69
How Does the Forecast for 2022 in AB 1007 Link with the Vision? .................................... 70
CHAPTER 7: Economic Analysis ........................................................................... 71
Capital Cost Assessment ........................................................................ 72
Consumer Payback Period ..................................................................... 72
Societal Cost-Effectiveness Analysis....................................................... 74
Macroeconomic Analysis........................................................................ 79
CHAPTER 8: Fuels and Trade Policy ....................................................... 82
How Is Trade Policy Relevant to Transportation Fuels? ........................... 82
What Are the Relevant Trade Rules?........................................................ 82
Rules Limiting Subsidies ....................................................................... 83
Could Policy Options Conflict With Trade Rules? ................................... 83
Biofuel Production Subsidies................................................................. 84
R&D Subsidies....................................................................................... 84
Low-Carbon Fuel Standard..................................................................... 85
The LCFS Is Covered by GATT, GATS, and the TBT Agreement ........................ 85
Engaging U.S. Trade Negotiators...................................................................... 86

 

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: California Retail Gasoline Prices..................................................................................... 13
Figure 2: The Full Fuel Cycle Analysis........................................... 30
Figure 3: Full Fuel Cycle Emissions ....................................................... 31
Figure 4: Vehicle GHG and Petroleum Reduction Performance of Alternative Fuels for
Light-Duty Vehicles as a Function of Feedstock ................................................................ 32
Figure 5: Alternative Fuel Technology Road Map, 2007 through 2050................................ 45
Figure 6: Vehicle Population Results for Example 1 ......................................................... 50
Figure 7: All Vehicles Mix - Fuel Consumption for Example 1................................................ 51
Figure 8: GHG Results for Example 1 .............................................................. 52
Figure 9: Vehicle Population Results for Example 2 ......................................... 54
Figure 10: All Vehicles Mix - Fuel Consumption for Example 2 ......................... 55
Figure 11: GHG Results for Example 2 ............................................................. 56
Figure 12: Vehicle Population Results for Example 3 ....................................... 60
Figure 13: All Vehicles Mix - Fuel Consumption for Example 3 ........................ 61
Figure 14: GHG Results for Example 3 ............................................................ 62
Figure 15: Comparison of GHG Reductions Possible by Strategy and Example............... 65
Figure 16: Consumer Payback Period of Light-Duty Alternative Fuel Vehicles................ 73
Figure 17: Cost-Effectiveness Range for Example 1................................. 75
Figure 18: Cost-Effectiveness Range for Example 2................................. 76
Figure 19: Cost-Effectiveness Range for Example 3................................. 76
Figure 20: Cost-Effectiveness of All Examples, Medium Cost Projections................. 77
Figure 21: Analysis of Consistency with Trade Agreements .................................... 84