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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................. 8
INTRODUCTION, OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE OF THE REPORT ....................... 11
CHAPTER 1. FACTS AND TRENDS.............................................................. 12
Market developments................................................................................ 12
Ethanol ............................................................................................ 14
Biodiesel ........................................................................................ 16
Trade in biofuels ........................................................... 17
Price and cost developments ................................................... 19
Policy developments.................................................................. 20
Government objectives for bioenergy .................................................... 20
Priority objectives in supporting biofuels ............................................. 21
National targets for renewable energy ............................................... 22
Support measures for biofuels.................................................................. 24
Specific biofuel support policies in selected countries ................................... 27
Trends in science and innovation ......................................................... 31
Introduction ......................................................................... 31
Budgets and key targets for R&D ...................................................... 31
Possible directions for R&D by Biofuel Type ......................................... 33
System-Wide Strategies ........................................................ 35
What the future may hold ............................................................ 36
Biofuel performance with respect to environmental and other criteria ................. 36
Introduction ........................................................................ 36
Global land use and climate trends................................................... 37
Analytical tools for evaluating the efficiency and environmental trade-offs of bio-energy pathways... 38
Life Cycle Assessment ..................................................... 38
Agro-economic modelling and land use change ........................................ 47
Research priorities and next steps for improvement ................................ 51
CHAPTER 2. QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF BIOFUEL POLICIES AND DEVELOPMENTS ......... 53
Model based analysis of policy effects on agricultural markets, land use and related environmental implications .................................................................. 53
The tool to analyse market and land use changes ................................ 53
The tool to analyse environmental impacts ................................. 54
The impact of biofuel support policies .................................. 55
Potential implications of a removal of biofuel support policies ................. 55
Potential implications of recently announced or enacted changes in biofuel policies ....... 61
Overall effect of biofuel policies ........................................... 67
The potential impact of ―next-generation biofuels‖ replacing commodity-based biofuels... 69
The impact of alternative crude oil prices ............................. 72
Environmental effects of agricultural land allocation between bioenergy crops and food-feed crops using SAPIM ..................................................................... 76
Background ........................................................................... 76
Environmental effects ..................................................... 76
Results...................................................................................... 77
CHAPTER 3. COSTS AND BENEFITS OF BIOFUEL SUPPORT POLICIES .............. 80
The objective of GHG mitigation – impacts and cost effectiveness ......................... 80
The objective of energy savings – impacts and cost effectiveness............................ 83
The objective of rural development – impacts on agricultural markets ........................ 85
Combined assessment of biofuel support policies in view of underlying objectives .......... 87
The risk of food inflation – implications for food prices and food security .................. 87
The risk of environmental degradation – impacts of intensification and land use changes ... 88
CHAPTER 4. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ............ 90
ANNEX A. SPECIFICATION OF BIOFUEL MARKETS IN THE AGLINK MODEL .................. 95
General description of the Aglink Biofuel Modules ............................ 95
Biofuel production .................................... 96
First-generation biofuels from agricultural commodities ..................... 96
Second-generation biofuels ............................. 98
Second-generation biofuels from dedicated crops ............... 98
Biofuels from non-agricultural sources ....................................... 102
Total biofuel production ................................................. 102
By-products ............................................................ 102
Price of DDG ............................................... 102
Feed-cost index .................................................... 103
Feed use of coarse grains, oil meals .......................................... 104
Effects of increased ethanol and DDG production on feed use ................ 104
Biofuel demand ....................................................................... 104
Price ratios driving biofuel demand .................................................. 104
Ethanol ............................................................................................ 105
Ethanol as an additive .............................................................. 105
Ethanol as neat fuel ................................................. 106
Non-fuel use of ethanol ........................................... 107
Biodiesel ................................................................. 108
Trade ...................................................................... 108
Domestic price determination.................................. 108
Global price determination ............................................ 109
ANNEX B. ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS COVERED IN THE SAPIM APPLICATION .............. 110
ANNEX C. ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL OUTCOMES UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS IN THE SAPIM APPLICATION ................................. 111
REFERENCES ................................................... 113