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Global Trends 2025 : A Transformed World
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2008-11-14
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출처
미국 국가정보위(NATIONAL INTELLIGENC ECOUNCIL)
- 원문링크
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키워드
#2025#Global Trends
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2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf
Global Trends 2025 : A Transformed World
▶ 박문수(Ph.D) 자료 제공
과학기술연구개발정책 네이버카페 http://cafe.naver.com/RnD
Contents
■ Executive Summary
■ Introduction: A Transformed World
- More Change than Continuity
- Alternative Futures
■ Chapter 1: The Globalizing Economy
- Back to the Future
- Growing Middle Class
- State Capitalism: A Post-Democratic Marketplace Rising in the East?
- Bumpy Ride in Correcting Current Global Imbalances
- Multiple Financial Nodes
- Diverging Development Models, but for How Long?
■ Chapter 2: The Demographics of Discord
- Populations Growing, Declining, and Diversifying—at the Same Time
- The Pensioner Boom: Challenges of Aging Populations
- Persistent Youth Bulges
- Changing Places: Migration, Urbanization, and Ethnic Shifts
- Demographic Portraits: Russia, China, India, and Iran
■ Chapter 3: The New Players
- Rising Heavyweights: China and India
- Other Key Players
- Up-and-Coming Powers
- Global Scenario I: A World Without the West
■ Chapter 4: Scarcity in the Midst of Plenty?
- The Dawning of a Post-Petroleum Age?
- The Geopolitics of Energy
- Water, Food, and Climate Change
- Global Scenario II: October Surprise
■ Chapter 5: Growing Potential for Conflict
- A Shrinking Arc of Instability by 2025?
- Growing Risk of a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East
- New Conflicts Over Resources?
- Terrorism: Good and Bad News
- Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq: Local Trajectories and Outside Interests
- Global Scenario III: BRICs’ Bust-Up
■ Chapter 6: Will the International System Be Up to the Challenges?
- Multipolarity without Multilateralism
- How Many International Systems?
- A World of Networks
- Global Scenario IV: Politics is Not Always Local
■ Chapter 7: Power-Sharing in a Multipolar World
- Demand for US Leadership Likely to Remain Strong, Capacities Will Shrink
- New Relationships and Recalibrated Old Partnerships
- Less Financial Margin of Error
- More Limited Military Superiority
- Surprises and Unintended Consequences
- Leadership Will Be Key
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