바이오인

 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY....................................................................................................... 4
1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................ 6
1.1 THE INTERIM REPORT .............................................................................................. 7
2 THE CLIMATE SCIENCE............................................................................................... 8
2.1 A GROWING BODY OF EVIDENCE THAT THE WORLD IS WARMING .................................. 8
2.2 UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE ...................................................10
2.3 EMISSIONS TRAJECTORIES ......................................................................................13
Estimating future emissions growth ......................................................................13
A1FI ...................................................................................................................14
A1B....................................................................................................................14
B1 ......................................................................................................................14
Global economic growth is driving higher emissions.............................................15
Stabilisation scenarios..........................................................................................19
2.4 CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE .....................................................................21
Observed climate change.....................................................................................21
Climate change in Australia – current and future ..................................................22
3 COMPARING COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND MITIGATION..............................24
3.1 DETERMINING ‘BUSINESS-AS-USUAL’ ........................................................................24
3.2 SEEKING STRONG ACTION IS IN AUSTRALIA’S INTEREST .............................................25
3.3 THE NECESSITY OF ADAPTATION ..............................................................................25
4 MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE ................................................................................27
4.1 ACCELERATING EFFECTIVE INTERNATIONAL ACTION: AUSTRALIA’S ROLE.....................27
The destination: principles for effective international action ..................................27
Setting a budget .................................................................................................27
Allocating the budget among countries...............................................................29
Contraction and convergence.............................................................................30
International emissions trading will help developing nations...............................32
Pre-requisites for joining regional or international trading schemes....................33
Evolution of the global architecture.......................................................................35
The Kyoto Protocol: only a starting point ............................................................35
An effective international agreement is still a long way off ..................................36
Multilateral climate negotiations are dogged by very difficult circumstances. ......36
Expectations need to be raised for the post-Kyoto framework ............................37
Unilateral and regional action can accelerate progress ......................................38
Implications of international negotiations for Australia ..........................................39
Allocating global budget on a ‘per capita’ basis makes sense ............................39
The case for dual carbon budgets ......................................................................40
The importance of interim targets.......................................................................40
Australia should play a lead role in accelerating progress ..................................42
Opportunities for regional partnerships...............................................................42
4.2 LIVING WITHIN AUSTRALIA’S EMISSIONS BUDGET.......................................................44
Emissions Pricing and the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ..............................45
Designing an efficient ETS.................................................................................45
Using the power of the market to minimise mitigation costs................................45
Robust institutional arrangements are needed ...................................................46

An ETS should have as broad coverage as practicable..................................... 47
International linkages would benefit Australia .................................................... 47
Distributional impacts of an emissions price ...................................................... 47
Addressing impacts to trade-exposed, emissions-intensive industries............... 49
Addressing impacts to the non-traded sector..................................................... 50
Addressing impacts to communities .................................................................. 50
The potential for carbon capture and storage .................................................... 51
Other issues that will be further explored by the Review.................................... 51
Research, development and commercialisation: public goods and externalities .. 52
Research is a public good ................................................................................. 53
Positive externalities of demonstration and pre-commercial learning................. 54
Supply-side infrastructure market failures............................................................ 54
5 IMPLICATIONS OF ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE FOR AUSTRALIA............... 56
5.1 AUSTRALIA WOULD SUFFER EXCEPTIONALLY FROM UNMITIGATED CLIMATE CHANGE ... 56
Australia stands to benefit from an effective international mitigation effort ......... 56
Developing our emissions reduction pathway.................................................... 58
6 REFERENCE LIST....................................................................................................... 59
ATTACHMENT 1 – TERMS OF REFERENCE.................................................................... 63