산업동향
BIOTECHNOLOGY VALUATIONS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY
- 등록일2002-06-04
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- 분류산업동향 > 제품 > 바이오의약
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자료발간일
2002-06-04
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출처
MILKEN INSTITUTE
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원문링크
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키워드
#BIOTECHNOLOGY VALUATIONS
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020604w.pdf
BIOTECHNOLOGY VALUATIONS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY
Executive Summary
Biotechnology investment need not be made in a valuation vacuum. Biotech research and development (R&D) is risky, but applicable risks can be quantified more precisely now than in the past. One reason is that in the late 20th century, even greater than the uncertainties of clinical-trial outcomes, were the uncertainties of manufacturing organism-derived pharmaceuticals (biologics). Now, in the 21st century, the uncertainties associated with biologic manufacturing have largely been dispelled: biologics can be manufactured at scale and sold at profitable margins. Also critical, the success rates of biotech clinical trials, pivotal value drivers of biotech R&D, are reasonably estimable. Because of this, the value of biotech R&D projects may be estimated by incorporating these clinical-trial success rates into a traditional discounted cash flow analysis. In this policy brief, I present risk-adjusted net present value as a straightforward method of determining the value of biotech R&D assets. Because clinical-trial-stage projects are the most valuable assets of most biotech firms, risk-adjusted net present value may be used to assign value to biotech companies and to reassess company value in response to significant clinical-trial events.
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