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Executive Summary :

Domestic Indian ethanol production in CY 2015 will approach 2.1 billion liters, three quarters of which is for the potable spirits industry, a moderate increase over 2 billion liters produced in CY 2014. The upward forecast is due to higher sugarcane production in MY 2014/15 (October-September). The new Indian administration is considering an increase in Government of India’s (GOI) ethanol blending mandate from the current level of five percent to 10 percent in CY 2015. Government-owned petroleum companies (known colloquially as oil marketing companies (OMCs)) are expected to procure 550 million liters of ethanol in CY 2014, indicating that ethanol would make up about 2.1 percent of India’s fuel market. Post expects that if the mandate is increased next year, OMCs will procure upwards of 700 million liters of ethanol, which will lead to a 0.4-percent increase in ethanol’s total penetration in India’s fuel market.

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