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기후변화에 대한 미국 에너지부문의 취약성에 관한 보고서

U.S. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Since the start of the 20th century, average annual temperatures across the contiguous United States have increased approximately 1.5°F (0.8°C) (NOAA 2013b, EPA 2012a). Recent weather conditions are no exception to this trend. July 2012 was the hottest month in the United States since record keeping began in 1895, and 2012 was the warmest year overall, marked by historic high temperatures and droughts, above average wildfires, multiple intense storms that disrupted power to millions, and multiple extreme heat waves (NOAA 2013c). More than 60% of the country experienced drought during the summer of 2012, including some areas of exceptional drought (NOAA 2013c, NOAA 2012c). These trends, which are expected to continue (NOAA 2013b, IPCC 2012, USGCRP 2009), could restrict the supply of secure, sustainable, and affordable energy critical to the nation’s economic growth. At least three major climate trends are relevant to the energy sector:

? Increasing air and water temperatures
? Decreasing water availability in some regions and seasons
? Increasing intensity and frequency of storm events, flooding, and sea level rise

This report-part of the Administration’s efforts to support national climate change adaptation planning through the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and Strategic Sustainability Planning process established under Executive Order 13514 and to advance the U.S. Department of Energy’s goal of promoting energy security-examines current and potential future impacts of these climate trends on the U.S. energy sector. It identifies activities underway to address these challenges and discusses potential opportunities to enhance energy technologies that are more climate-resilient, as well as information, stakeholder engagement, and policies and strategies to further enable their deployment.

Vulnerabilities in the U.S. Energy Sector
Increasing temperatures, decreasing water availability, more intense storm events, and sea level rise will each independently, and in some cases in combination, affect the ability of the United States to produce and transmit electricity from fossil, nuclear, and existing and emerging renewable energy sources. These changes are also projected to affect the nation’s demand for energy and its ability to access, produce, and distribute oil and natural gas (ORNL 2012a, USGCRP 2009). An assessment of impacts-both positive and negative-is necessary to inform forward-looking efforts to enhance energy security. Significant findings include:

? Thermoelectric power generation facilities are at risk from decreasing water availability and increasing ambient air and water temperatures, which reduce the efficiency of cooling, increase the likelihood of exceeding water thermal intake or effluent limits that protect local ecology, and increase the risk of partial or full shutdowns of generation facilities

? Energy infrastructure located along the coast is at risk from sea level rise, increasing intensity of storms, and higher storm surge and flooding, potentially disrupting oil and gas production, refining, and distribution, as well as electricity generation and distribution

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